Wednesday, September 24, 2008 @ 1:30 PM

Buffett and The Magazine Cover Indicator

From Daily Digest (Everyone) | 7 Comments | Print  

While Main Street rushed to buy the yellow metal in anticipation of Apocalypse, Warren Buffet bought Gold… man Sachs, his first foray into financials since 1987 [WATCH VIDEO].

On Monday night, one of my friends alerted me to “the perfect trifecta” of magazine covers. Our discussion went back and forth because we had never seen anything like quite this before in our careers [SEE GARTMAN VIDEO].

  • Economist: What next for financial capitalism?
    This is a black week. Those of us who have supported financial capitalism are open to the charge that the system we championed has merely enabled a few spivs to get rich. But it helped produce healthy economic growth and low inflation for a generation. It would take a very big recession indeed to wipe out those gains. Do not forget that in the debate ahead.
  • Time (U.S. & Europe): How Financial Madness Overtook Wall Street
    Great new fortunes were made, and with them came great new hubris. The newly minted masters of the universe even had the nerve to defend their ridiculous income tax break — much of the private-equity managers’ piece of their investors’ profits is taxed at the 15% capital-gains rate rather than at the normal top federal income tax rate of 35% — as being good for society. (”Hey, we’re creating wealth — cut us some slack.”)
  • Businessweek: It is Safe Yet? Wall Street Staggers
    Other by-now-familiar attitudes have helped put us in the drink: In good times, there’s no such thing as too much leverage. (Remember Michael Milken?) Derivatives don’t require oversight, even though almost no one understands them. (How now, Long-Term Capital Management?) And, don’t worry, the quantitative geniuses have devised models to eliminate extreme risk. (Enron, anyone?)

In the end, we agreed that it was a tough call: this was EITHER an historic buying opportunity OR it was the end of the world as we knew it. And now, we know the outcome that Buffett is betting $5 billion upon.

Once termed syntactically challenged, he rarely completes sentences. When he does they turn into folklore, the best example of which (“we hoped for the best, but it turned out like always”) is now a catchphrase in Russia. His description of the situation in Ukraine is equally apt: “It has never been like this and now it is exactly the same again.” — The Economist, quoting Viktor Chernomyrdin

Further Reading:
Time Covers Wall Street
Bill Gross: How Main Street Will Profit

Market Sentiment

This might be a good time to take a look at what our objective market sentiment indicator tells us on the WEEKLY charts of the S&P and NASDAQ 100 indexes. 2B or not 2B? That is the question.

In fact, given the bleakness of the investment landscape, it’s time to look at the MONTHLY charts and see where we might be in the Investor Sentiment Cycle.

Members, please CLICK HERE to continue reading.

Questions and Comments

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  1. Carlos on September 24th, 2008 7:40 PM

    Ummm yes but Buffet is buying preferred stock and getting a 10% annual dividend… “Berkshire Hathaway will receive perpetual preferred shares in Goldman, which will pay a 10 annual percent dividend, or $500 million a year. Those dividends take precedence over other payments to common shareholders.”

  2. Teresa on September 24th, 2008 9:38 PM

    It was smart to hedge against the possibility that Congress does not pass The Plan. He’s no dummy!

  3. Carlos on September 24th, 2008 10:14 PM

    Seems like we now officially have “a ‘war on bear markets,’ one that will require an international, coordinated attack on free markets” :) BTW regards to you and Pete nice work with the site.

  4. Teresa on September 24th, 2008 10:19 PM

    I’m sure you’re enjoying every minute of it.

  5. Doug on September 26th, 2008 9:53 AM

    dear T: would you do me a favor, and stop the confusing and time wasting way you are making a point ie the buffet front page idea . I don’t have time to listen to videos etc. just say what you mean. thanks

  6. Teresa on September 26th, 2008 9:54 AM

    Would you please do me a favor then and stop reading the posts in the blog that are designed to be educational?

    Just watch for the emails in your inbox and rebalance your portfolio accordingly. That’s all you need to do.

    BTW, my friend and I are now waiting for the Mother of All Magazine Indicators…

  7. Eric on September 26th, 2008 8:12 PM

    Teresa,

    My Favorite part… The best thing in the world, is when you make me think about what is about to happen, and force me to make my own decision and have me Prepare for it to go either way. All the while providing Indicators, both historic and philosophical.

    I don’t mean to suck up, but I like reading about the Asian debt crisis.

 

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