Portfolio Review: June 2008
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June 2008 capped a quarter that most mutual and hedge fund managers would like to forget. According to Bloomberg, last month saw “the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its worst June since the Great Depression, as record oil prices, credit-market writedowns and a slowing economy threatened to extend a yearlong profit slump.”
Portfolio Performance
By any measure, our portfolios have weathered the storm, performing well in a very difficult environment. 2008 has affirmed our investment policy: a disciplined and diversified portfolio strategy is the light that shines on an otherwise barren investment landscape when markets experience a protracted downturn.
Opportunities for Nimble Traders
June 2008 was a gift for traders. The volatility and range seen in most markets was breathtaking, providing endless opportunities for aggressive swing and intraday trading. As the market came to life, I personally had the most fun and exciting month in a long time, all the while knowing that capital set aside for my retirement was preserved.
Tough Sledding for Managers
For mutual funds, the slaughter was across the board: value investors were stung by financial stocks, Bill Miller’s Legg Mason Value Trust continued to take a pounding while the 40 largest public pension funds had a tough fiscal year.
Hedge funds posted a decent second quarter even though June was a rough month. Morningstar reported that June marked a bad end to a good quarter.
Most hedge fund indexes managed to beat other indexes. In particular, nervous investors flocked to “so-called hedge funds of funds, where managers prepare a portfolio of individual hedge funds aimed at reducing risk.” Yes, that’s right; even in the hedge fund universe, diversification saved the day.
Defy “Collective Ignorance”
The lesson investors re-learned is that while cowboys have their day in bull markets, bear markets separate the men from the boys. The key, as Yale University’s Chief Investment Officer David Swensen put it so eloquently, is to “diversify against the collective ignorance”:
For most people, he recommends a very basic approach: use index funds, exchange-traded funds and other low-cost instruments, and stick to your long-term asset allocation — even when the markets are in tumult. Don’t be distracted by market forecasts, he said. “You have to diversify against the collective ignorance,” he said. “I think nobody is in a position to react to these big macro-issues. Where is the dollar going to be or what is G.D.P. growth going to be in China? For every smart person on one side of the question, there is another smart person on the other side.” — Keep It Simple, Says Yale’s Top Investor
Reference
Here are a collection of videos and articles to memorialize the quarter that was (or wasn’t).
- Hedge Fund Legends Speak [WATCH VIDEO]
A look at the future of the stock market and the economy, with Michael Steinhardt, WisdomTree Investments and Paul Roth, Schulte, Roth and Zabel - Hedge Fund Pioneers [WATCH VIDEO]
Insight on the Treasury’s rescue plan for Fannie & Freddie, with Michael Steinhardt, WisdomTree Investments and Paul Roth, Schulte, Roth and Zabel - Hedge Funds Suffering [WATCH VIDEO]
The hedge-fund industry had a rough first half of 2008 with profit proving elusive to many. Ken Heinz from Hedge Fund Research says the June was a particularly bad month. - Hedged Hammered [WATCH VIDEO
Hedge funds turn in their worst first-half performance in nearly twenty years, with Ben White, Financial Times and Ken Heinz, Hedge Fund Research - Hedge Funds Face Difficult Times [WATCH VIDEO]
The pace of hedge fund launches in the US over the first 6 months of 2008 was at its lowest in years, according to, Stuart Feffer, co-CEO of LaCrosse Global Fund Services. He expects European hedge funds to show an even slower launch trend. - Hedge Fund Summit [WATCH VIDEO]
Discussing Fannie & Freddie’s danger of failing, with Mark Yusko, Morgan Creek Capital Management and John Burbank, Passport Capital - Hedge Hunter [WATCH VIDEO]
What it takes to be the best, with Mark Yusko, Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO and CNBC’s Becky Quick - Edhec Alternative Indexes see mostly negative returns in June
In this challenging context, eight of the 13 hedge fund strategies in the Edhec Alternative Indexes posted negative returns. Emerging markets, one of May’s best-performing styles, was the worst performer with a decline of 2.58 per cent, heavily influenced by the poor performance of the stock markets. Long/short equity lost 1.45 per cent and event-driven funds were down by 1.32 per cent. By contrast, short selling outperformed all other styles, returning 8.08 per cent, while other positive performers were CTA global (3.33 per cent), equity market neutral (1.92 per cent), global macro (0.93 per cent) and distressed securities (a bare 0.05 per cent). - HFN Averages Performance Report — June 2008
Equity and credit markets experienced severe conditions in June and 2008 has been one of the more difficult years in recent memory. It is during times like these that hedge funds have historically separated themselves from other asset classes to produce positive long term outperformance. That hedge funds are negative in 2008 is less important than the fact that the average hedge fund has outperformed the S&P 500 TR by more than 1000 basis points through June. - Morningstar, Inc. Reports Second-Quarter 2008 Hedge Fund Performance and Asset Flows
“Equity markets suffered steep declines in June,” said Morningstar hedge fund analyst Nadia Van Dalen. “Volatility returned to levels not seen since March, amid fears of recession and rising inflation. Most hedge funds are not immune to these economic shocks, despite what their name might imply.” - Stop Worrying, and Learn to Love the Bear
When you bought into the gospel of “stocks for the long run,” did you have any idea how long the long run can turn out to be? Exactly 10 years ago, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock Index was at 1164; it closed Friday at 1239. That’s an annualized average return of 0.63%. At that rate, it will take you 111 more years to double your money in the stock market. - Market’s Swoon Prods Investors To Try Options
Gyrating markets and eager brokerage firms are driving small investors into complex options trades, which can help hedge against stock-price swings, generate income and boost overall returns. But options can also present huge risks. - How Bad Will It Get on Wall Street?
It has been a year since the global credit markets first seized up, and four months since the dismantling of Bear Stearns.
Questions and Comments
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Key Reference Articles
For your convenience, this is a list of key reference articles. Most of these articles are archived in the Knowledge Base for registered users and members.
Trading Ideas, Market Barometers, Correlation & Volatility
- Using The Daily Workbook
- Q&A: Stock Picking and Self-Attribution Bias
- A Conversation with Charles Kirk
- Barometers: What The Market Says
- The Beauty Contest Stock Scan
- Relative Momentum and Strength Are Key
- How to Read the RMI Histogram
- Putting It Together
- The Correlation Heat Map
- Identifying Volatility Clusters
- VIX and The Rules of Investing
Investor Sentiment
- 50 Ways to Lose Your Money
- The Philosophy of Tops
- The Investor Sentiment Cycle, Part I
- The Investor Sentiment Cycle, Part II
- Where We Are In The Cycle
- Where We Are In The Cycle, Part II
- Sentiment Lesson from Corn & Soybeans
- Financial Economics Lecture 18: Behavioural Finance
Economic Fundamentals
- The World According to Brock (Introduction)
- The World According to Brock I
- The World According to Brock II
- The World According to Brock III
- The World According to Brock IV
- Bernanke Takes Aim At Counterknowledge
Fundamentals of Trading
- Teresa’s Rules of Market Survival
- Evaluating Buy and Sell Signals
- Principles of Profitable Trading
- Glossary of Trade Setups
- Options: Bull Call and Bear Put Spreads
- Q&A: Trading with Call and Put Spreads
- How To Think Diabolically
- Trade Like a Commando, Part I
- Thoughts on Position Sizing
- Own The Zone: Chapter One
- Own The Zone: Chapter Two
- Own The Zone: Chapter Three
- Own The Zone: Chapter Four
- Own The Zone: Chapter Five
- Own The Zone: Chapter Six
- Own The Zone: Chapter Seven
- Stops Cannot Be Eyeballed
- Thoughts on the Kase Dev-stop
- Engineering Better Bollinger Bands
- Expectancy, Performance and The “R” Word
- Q&A: Are Moving Averages Useful?
- Q&A: Interpretation of Moving Averages
Investment Portfolios
- Q&A: Where Do I Start?
- Q&A: Vanguard and Fidelity Equivalents
- Building Your Portfolio: Part I
- Building Your Portfolio: Part II
- Building Your Portfolio: Part III
- Building Your Portfolio: Part IV
- Building Your Portfolio: Part V
- Building Your Portfolio: Part VI
- Building Your Portfolio: Part VII
- Building Your Portfolio: Part VIII
- Building Your Portfolio: Part IX
- Should You Trade Your Investment Portfolio? I
- Should You Trade Your Investment Portfolio? II
- Should You Trade Your Investment Portfolio? III
- Should You Trade Your Investment Portfolio? IV
- Risk Management for Civilians (HEDGING)
- The Last Word on Hedging with ETFs (HEDGING)
- Hedge Ratios for Inverse ETFs are Here (HEDGING)
- Q&A: Hedging, a Step by Step Guide (HEDGING)
- Moving Averages for Portfolio Timing
- Alpha vs. Beta for Your Portfolio
- Time To Get Back Into the Market? Part 1
- Time To Get Back Into the Market? Part 2
- Time To Get Back Into the Market? Part 3
- Time To Get Back Into the Market? Part 4
- A Conversation with David Fry
Recommended Reading
Before you trade or invest, take time to contemplate and understand some fundamental truths.
- The Meditations of Marcus Aurelius
- The Nature of Risk
- Winning The Mental Game on Wall Street
- Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
- A Mathematician Plays The Stock Market
- How to Lie with Statistics
- Chance
- Game Theory: A Very Short Introduction
- The Winner's Curse
- Behavioral Finance & Decision Theory
- New Market Wizards (Eckhardt Chapter)
- Pioneering Portfolio Management
- Unconventional Success
- A Brief History of Economic Genius
- General Economic History
- The Age of Turbulence
- In an Uncertain World